Monsoon may hit Kerala before May 31: Monsoon is 100 km away from Kerala, but thunderstorm entry is unlikely this time
The monsoon will hit the country by May 31. The northern end of the monsoon on Thursday reached the Maldives, the southwestern Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The monsoon is now 100 km off the coast of Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala.
The monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on or before May 31. The northern end of the monsoon on Thursday reached the Maldives, the southwestern Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The monsoon is now 100 km off the coast of Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala.
Monsoon reaches Andaman and Nicobar: The meteorological department had earlier said that monsoon could hit Kerala on May 27, while private meteorological agency Skymet had fixed May 26 as the date of monsoon. Now the meteorological department says the monsoon could hit on or before May 31. In the changed circumstances, Skymet said, the monsoon will be normal, but the chances of a thunderstorm are low.
The monsoon in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands has reached May 15, a week before the scheduled date of May 22, following a hurricane in the Bay of Bengal. Changed, but not the kind of pre-monsoon rains that were expected in Central and East India. Monsoon clouds are seen in many parts of Kerala. Meteorologists say that monsoon will arrive in the rest of the country three-four days before or after the scheduled date.
Only 35-40 days of rain will fall: Dr. S.N. "It used to rain for 50-60 days, now it is raining for only 35-40 days," said Sunil Pandey. Now it rains a lot in a single day. Like every year, it will rain this time too, but its days will be less.
Heat will bring relief: Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan are not likely to get hotter because of the winds coming from the Bay of Bengal. Relieve from the scorching heat for the next 5 days. According to the meteorological department, the temperature has dropped due to scattered rains over the last few days.
Maharashtra will receive less rainfall: Water storage in the state's lakes is very low. Currently, water is being supplied by 401 tankers at various places by the state government in view of the water crisis. There will be no more rains in Maharashtra in the first 10 days of June. The state will remain in crisis till mid-June.
After what has been a scorching summer riddled with heatwaves and above-average temperatures, it is finally time for Southern India to welcome the wettest period of the year: the southwest monsoon season.
Due to the movement and direction of these monsoon winds, the first monsoon showers mark their arrival over the Indian mainland by drenching the southernmost parts of Kerala. Over the past several decades, this onset of monsoon in ‘God's Own Country’ has occurred on or around June 1.
This year, however, the opening monsoon rains may land in Kerala up to five days earlier than normal — on May 27, 2022 (+/- 4 days).
“The monsoon onset conditions in Kerala are currently favourable. The actual onset is likely to occur on May 27, with a model error of four days. The monsoon has already progressed up to the Sri Lankan region,” an official from the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) regional met office in Thiruvananthapuram told weather.com.
Further, the daily forecast issued by the IMD has indicated that as of Thursday morning, the conditions remain favourable for the further advancement of monsoon over some parts of Southwest Arabian Sea, some more parts of Southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives and Comorin area, south and east-central Bay of Bengal and some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours.
The onset of monsoon has always been tricky, and over the last 50 years, the date of onset in Kerala has ranged from May 19 (in 1990) to June 18 (in 1972). This variance is in large attributed to the state of the ENSO — El Niño–Southern Oscillation — in the preceding winter.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a tropical wave that travels around the equator every 30-40 days — also modulates the precipitation patterns in India. The current MJO signal (active phase) lies over the Indian Ocean and will likely trigger the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 27.
However, the MJO may enter an inactive phase by the end of May. This suppression may subsequently favour a slow progress of monsoon, even though the background state weakly favours an earlier start. Therefore, amidst the prevailing weak La Niña conditions, there is a chance that the onset and subsequent progress of monsoon over Kerala and Karnataka can be delayed until the first week of June.
03-Dec-2024